While two exciting rounds of the 2024 MLB playoffs have been playing out on the field, conversations have been taking place in front offices across the game about the players who will become free agents as soon as the postseason ends.
Some of those upcoming free agents have shined -- or struggled -- so far under the bright lights of October. How much will their postseason performance impact their offseason payday?
Here is what my discussions with front office sources tell us about who is helping -- or hurting -- their free agent stock most during the playoffs.
In a tier of his own
Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees
Soto is the clear No. 1 free agent in this class, but he also might have the least at stake in the postseason. In short, he is going to get paid no matter what his postseason stat line looks like. I polled 28 industry insiders to project Soto's contract in June, then did a tiered free agent breakdown in August, and the consensus across the sport hasn't changed. Soto is tracking to get somewhere in the $500 million neighborhood, maybe a bit more if there's a bidding war and/or a hot market in general this winter. That's going to be the expectation until probably December, when a real read of his suitors might fine-tune that projection.
Playing for a nine-figure payday
Jack Flaherty, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
These are the two best non-Soto free agents left standing in the playoffs, after Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames and Max Fried were eliminated in the wild-card round. But perhaps no upcoming free agent has more to gain in the coming weeks than Alonso.
The surface factors point to a shorter-term deal and/or an eight-figure guarantee being the more likely options this offseason. He is a right-handed hitter playing first base who turns 30 in December and offers no baserunning, fielding or positional value. His WAR has declined in consecutive seasons, and he's coming off the worst power season of his career.
But Alonso also has some key factors working in his favor. There's the marketability of an accomplished power bat (34 to 53 homers in every full season) playing in a huge market, with a deep-pocketed owner and adoring fan base, and a growing reputation for delivering in big spots this October.
Though the basics say he'll come in below both of his most similar recent free agency comps -- Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130 million) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million) -- the prevailing opinion from my industry conversations is that he'll land between those numbers due to the second list of factors, and the odds of those winning out will only grow with a deep Mets playoff run.
Flaherty has helped his stock with a bounce-back season coming at the right time after four straight middling campaigns. His best free agent comps both happen to be pitchers from the 2021-22 free agent class: Kevin Gausman (five years, $110 million) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115 million). Projecting his next contract requires some adjustments from those starting points due to natural market inflation over three years and Flaherty being younger than both with a slightly better platform season -- but a shorter track record of success leading into free agency.
This is where October comes into play. If Flaherty can rebound from his up-and-down NLDS Game 1 start against the San Diego Padres, a series of standout playoff outings (if the Dodgers advance far enough) might help teams feel better about him repeating his 2024 season. But if he doesn't get that chance or shows more of the same, teams could be wary of spending well past $100 million.
Looking to maximize a multiyear deal
Ha-Seong Kim, SS, San Diego Padres (injured)
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Manaea, SP, New York Mets
Luis Severino, SP, New York Mets
Jeff Hoffman, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Carlos Estevez, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Tanner Scott, RP, San Diego Padres
All of these players are in line for big multiyear deals, and someone in this group could get to $100 million, though it probably wouldn't be by much.
Hernandez answered the questions this season that had him in the one year vs. multiyear decision area last winter, and I think he easily clears $50 million despite his defensive metrics declining in 2024. He was a consistent presence in L.A.'s lineup all season and has a chance to add to his growing value during the postseason.
The Mets added two pitchers on short-term contracts during the winter who are continuing to play themselves into bigger upcoming paydays -- either in a return to New York or a signing elsewhere. Manaea will opt out of the second year of his two-year, $28 million deal due to a nicely timed career year. He should be able to land at least a three-year deal and could clear Taijuan Walker's four-year, $72 million deal from two winters ago. Severino should come in below Manaea but easily get three years after pitching on a one-year, $13 million contract this season.
Hoffman, Estevez and Scott are the three top relievers available, and all are pitching crucial innings during the postseason. Hoffman and Scott are a bit ahead of Estevez in my mind, but all of them might get four-year deals at an eight-figure AAV.
I'll include Kim here, but he is out for the rest of the postseason because of a shoulder injury, so he won't have a chance to help his stock this October. I had him at the back of the nine-figure group in August, but he now feels more likely to land near the top of this group.
They still have something to prove
Michael Wacha, SP, Kansas City Royals
Clay Holmes, RP, New York Yankees
Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres
Wacha is likely to opt out of the $16 million player option he has and will get a multiyear deal after a career year with the Royals, but he's more of a reliable source of veteran innings than an impact starter. The confounding part is his velocity went up 1.5 mph this season, so some organizations that excel at pitching development could see more upside under the surface. Wacha could get over $50 million on a three-year deal, but I think a two-year deal at a high AAV is more likely.
Holmes was awful down the stretch -- 12 IP, 9 K, 7 BB, 4.50 ERA in his last 15 appearances -- but was the 10th-best reliever in the sport until then. I assume the Yankees will let him go since he should get a three-year offer from another team, but showing some of his previous form in his October moments will only help any suitor buy into the idea he can rebound next season.
Profar's prospects don't have the hard-to-read market Alonso's do, he's just a straight-up hard-to-read player.
I assume there will be multiyear offers for him from the conversations I've had, but the metrics say he's a streaky, bat-only left fielder (negative defensive and baserunning metrics), so it would be hard to guarantee much to the 31-year-old despite a 4.3 WAR outburst of a season. He's also the type of player who could ride the momentum from a hot postseason into a team buying into the idea that 2024 was more late-career breakout than another blip in an inconsistent career.
Short-term options
Kyle Higashioka, C, San Diego Padres
Gleyber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees
Jose Iglesias, SS, New York Mets
Alex Verdugo, OF, New York Yankees
Harrison Bader, OF, New York Mets
Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Matthew Boyd, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Tommy Kahnle, RP, New York Yankees
Blake Treinen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Spencer Turnbull, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
The cutoff for this tier is around $10 million in projected guaranteed money, with J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Alex Cobb, Jesse Winker and Anthony Rizzo among those just missing that line.
Torres is fascinating due to his big prospect status and uneven career, despite some high highs. His 2024 contained a pretty big split -- 83 wRC+ through July 11, 130 wRC+ through the end of the season, with much better walk and strikeout rates in the second half -- but for the season, his offense, defense and baserunning figures were below league average. Since he's still 27 years old, I assume he'll sign a big one-year deal to potentially hit next winter's market off of a bounce-back season. Torres fits the type of player the Mariners often target, even though I have no reporting to back that up.
A deep dive into Buehler's 2024 production reveals he is basically a finesse-based No. 3 or maybe No. 4 starter as he nears free agency after returning from Tommy John surgery. I could see a one-year get-right deal, or a team with a plan for his arsenal and usage offering multiple years.