MLB playoffs 2024: Offseason questions for eliminated teams

The Los Angeles Dodgers are headed to the World Series to face the New York Yankees.

With their National League Championship Series loss in Game 6, the New York Mets were eliminated from the playoffs. They join the Cleveland Guardians (who lost to the Yankees in the American League Championship Series), Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers as the teams that have seen their postseasons end.

Whether your team's playoff departure came in the opening days or after a long(er) run, let's look ahead to what could be on the front office's to-do list heading into the offseason. ESPN MLB reporters Alden Gonzalez, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield identify the free agents to watch, key priorities and a question that will shape the coming months for each eliminated squad.

Did your favorite team miss the postseason altogether? We dove into what went wrong for each non-playoff team -- and how to fix it.

Teams eliminated in the league championship series

New York Mets

Key free agents: 1B Pete Alonso, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Luis Severino, DH J.D. Martinez, OF Harrison Bader, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Ryne Stanek, OF Jesse Winker, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Drew Smith, RHP Phil Maton (club option), LHP Sean Manaea (player opt-out)

Biggest offseason priority: Whew. That's a ton of money coming off the books. Not including Maton (the Mets should pick up his option) but including Manaea (who will almost certainly opt out), that's $150 million of their 2024 payroll (including money for Max Scherzer and James McCann). And you know what that adds up to: owner Steve Cohen making a serious run at Juan Soto.

The Mets will likely attempt to re-sign Alonso, although that will be a tricky negotiation with Alonso coming off his worst year with the club and entering his age-30 season. Still, Alonso, who had some big moments in the postseason, means more to the Mets than other clubs, so you would bet on him returning to New York.

All those free agents also means replacing 94 starts from Manaea, Quintana and Severino. A healthy Kodai Senga will make up some of that total, but re-signing Manaea should be the top priority of the three after he dropped his arm slot and had a terrific second half.

Do the Mets have any prospects ready to step in? Not sure. Luisangel Acuna filled in nicely down the stretch when Francisco Lindor was injured, but he hit just .258/.299/.355 at Triple-A. He might be an option for center field or second base, but you can't pencil him in. Outfielder Drew Gilbert hit .215 in Triple-A. Christian Scott, who made nine starts for the Mets, had Tommy John surgery in September. Brandon Sproat, now the team's top pitching prospect, dominated the lower minors but had a 7.53 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. And don't forget Ronny Mauricio, who missed 2024 with a torn ACL.

Offseason prediction: Look, a conservative prediction has Soto returning to the New York Yankees, although that's hardly a slam dunk. Let's go with the Mets re-signing Alonso -- which I think is reasonable, as there's unlikely to be a robust, nine-figure market for a player of his skills and age -- plus Manaea. President of baseball operations David Stearns knows he needs to infuse young players into the lineup, so I think he keeps the prospects. He'll have to add some bullpen arms and I could see another free agent starter, whether it's Quintana or Severino, or somebody else on that level, like Yusei Kikuchi or Nick Pivetta. Less expensive alternatives to Soto include Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander and Tyler O'Neill. -- David Schoenfield

Cleveland Guardians

Key free agents: RHP Shane Bieber, RHP Alex Cobb, LHP Matthew Boyd, C Austin Hedges

Biggest offseason priority: Figuring out how to upgrade a rotation that ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.40 ERA and 24th in innings pitched. Cleveland's projected rotation ended up getting ravaged by injuries, including Bieber going down after two starts, and poor performance (Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie both with ERAs over 5.00, while Carlos Carrasco, pressed into service, went 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA). Ben Lively stepped up out of nowhere to offer support to Tanner Bibee, but by the playoffs the Guardians were starting Cobb (acquired at the trade deadline) and Boyd (signed in late June as a free agent coming off Tommy John surgery).

They'll have Bibee and Gavin Williams back to front the 2025 group, plus Lively, although you can't necessarily expect the same kind of results from him. Allen and Joey Cantillo are options, while McKenzie looks like a pure reclamation project at this time as he tries to find his 2022 form. Adding a veteran starter as insurance certainly makes sense, although given Cleveland's budget, it will have to be of the low-cost variety. Finding the 2025 version of Lively is the ultimate goal. Maybe that guy is Boyd, who pitched great in his eight starts (2.72) and could fit into the team budget.

Will they trade Josh Naylor? Naylor is obviously an important part of the Cleveland offense after setting career highs with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs, but we know the way the Guardians operate. Naylor is entering his final year before reaching free agency and there are some contending teams that could use a first baseman. The question is whether the Guardians believe enough in Kyle Manzardo to hand him the job after he hit .234/.282/.421 in 156 plate appearances -- certainly not enough plate appearances to draw any conclusions, but he had good numbers at Triple-A and looks ready for a full-time opportunity.

Offseason prediction: The Yankees, Reds and Astros were all in the bottom five of OPS at first base, so there's a potential match there for a Naylor trade. Bringing back Boyd feels like a fit, given his success with the Guardians, but maybe he priced himself out of Cleveland. Top prospects Travis Bazzana (the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft) and Chase DeLauter need a little more time in the upper minors, but they could be pressing for jobs by the second half -- but that's a good problem to have if it arrives and shouldn't necessarily lead to any offseason trades. Still, it will be interesting to see if Bazzana remains at second base or moves to the outfield given that Andres Gimenez is signed through 2029. Given that Gimenez's contract eventually gets up to $23.5 million per season, maybe that does make him a long shot trade possibility. -- David Schoenfield

Teams eliminated in division series

Detroit Tigers

Key free agents: None

Biggest offseason priority: A thumper. When you look at the Tigers' positional array as it stood at the end of the season, it's talented but especially really young at every spot. It's an athletic group that can be augmented with midtier veterans to fill roster gaps and can grow together. Their top position prospect, outfielder Max Clark, has yet to hit the upper levels of the minors, so there's more talent coming. Because Detroit has all of those young athletes to blanket the field, and young players tend to need less rest in the form of DH days, the Tigers could accommodate a pure, mashing DH more than most contending teams. The Tigers also have a lot of cash to spend if they so choose, given their lack of committed money, and in theory a player like Pete Alonso embodies the kind of hitter we're talking about. If that doesn't work, it's still a skill set the Tigers should pursue after finishing next-to-last in OBP and 22nd in slugging.

What is to be done about Javier Baez? As mentioned, the Tigers have one of the more clean payroll outlooks in the majors, giving them an ideal foundation from which to build now that they are exiting the end of the rebuilding tunnel. The exception to this is Baez, whose six-year, $140 million deal looks worse with each passing season. While the Tigers wouldn't want to change anything about their stretch run, the Baez question didn't gain any clarity from the fact that they played so much better after he was injured. His OPS+ progression over the past four years: 117, 91, 63, 46. He turns 32 in December and has the entire back half of that contract to go. There's no prescription being offered here because there might not be one.

Offseason prediction: Targeted, short-term spending. Let's say the Tigers are on board with our suggestion to pursue Alonso or a comparable thumper such as Cody Bellinger. Then maybe Detroit could make a splash, but otherwise, it seems more like the Tigers could make a targeted approach adding a plethora of second-tier types to add depth and serve as the mortar for the deep young core. No matter how it shakes out, an exciting winter lies ahead for Tigers fans. -- Bradford Doolittle

Kansas City Royals

Key free agents: RHP Michael Lorenzen, LHP Will Smith, OF Tommy Pham, UTL Garrett Hampson, IF Paul DeJong, OF Robbie Grossman

Biggest offseason priority: Adding depth. The Royals will be tasked with staving off negative regression as they attempt to reconstruct the magic that led to this miraculous campaign. The core of the big league roster will largely remain in place. Still, as you can see with a glance at that list of veteran free agents above, building depth will be a challenge.

With a team like the Royals, this is a delicate process. The system isn't really churning out in-house talent just yet, and so more stopgap additions are likely. That focus on the 26-man roster isn't just an exercise of collecting names, the Royals have to augment the skill set of their core and compensate for their shortcomings at the same time. And the clubhouse has to mesh, as it did so well in 2024.

Kansas City leaped from 56 to 86 wins. A lot of its success was due to excellent injury luck and things like hitting with runners in scoring position. Even the MVP level of play for Bobby Witt Jr. can't be taken for granted. Sure, Witt will be great again, but young as he is, it is really hard for a player to repeat what he did in 2024.

Once again, the Royals are going to need help from the outside, and the quantity might be as important as the quality.

To what degree can the rotation performance be replicated? When the Royals attacked their past offseason, providing stability to the rotation was the top priority. Even so, getting both Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to accept their offers coming off a 106-loss season was nothing to be taken for granted. That duo, along with standout holdovers Cole Ragans and Brady Singer, provided the foundation for the most consistent and durable rotation in the league.

Now they just need to do it again. Kansas City might get some help from Kyle Wright, depending on his health and how rusty he might be after such a long injury absence. Chances are, though, the Royals aren't going to be able to get 151 starts out of five guys, as they did this season, with Alec Marsh joining the above four. And even if they did, some regression in performance for both Lugo and Wacha needs to be factored in.

In other words: Good as they were in 2024, the Royals' rotation will still need an infusion.

Offseason prediction: The Royals will again be among the top half in free agent spending, but they'll spread it around. A couple of starters, a couple of bats and a couple of relievers, at least. While you expect them to be mostly stopgap types, teams selecting wisely from that group can see big dividends. That's where organizational processes come into play. The view of the Royals' mechanisms is wildly different today than it was a year ago at this time. Expect them to show that off during the months to come. -- Bradford Doolittle

Philadelphia Phillies

Key free agents: RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Carlos Estevez, RHP Spencer Turnbull

Biggest offseason priority: The view might be that the Phillies are going backward -- from the World Series in 2022 to the National League Championship Series in 2023 to the NL Division Series in 2024. That says more about the mercurial nature of the playoffs than the Phillies themselves. This was the best of those three teams, and other than two of the high-leverage relievers, all the key players are under contract for 2025. In one sense, that might be the biggest concern: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber will be 32, Nick Castellanos will be 33 and J.T. Realmuto will be 34.

Re-signing one or both of Hoffman and Estevez to keep the back end of the bullpen intact is probably the top priority. Despite the struggles against the Mets in the postseason, it was an excellent late-game pen during the regular season. Otherwise, Taijuan Walker (3-7, 7.10 ERA) was a disaster as the fifth starter, but he's under contract for two more years. The Phillies had hoped pitching prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel would be ready by now, but Painter has now missed two full seasons after Tommy John surgery in July 2023 and Abel had a 6.46 ERA in Triple-A. You hate to double down on a fifth starter because you're paying Walker $18 million, but the Phillies might not have such good health from their top four guys again, so bringing in a veteran starter/swingman is an option.

Is there payroll room to do anything big? Not a whole lot if you factor in signing Estevez and/or Hoffman. According to Roster Resource, the 2024 payroll was about $263 million and the estimated 2025 payroll is already at $242 million. Zack Wheeler's salary climbs from $23.5 million to $42 million, for example. That doesn't leave a lot of room to improve the bench or sign another starter. In one sense, Dave Dombrowski has backed himself into a corner with this team. The 2025 Phillies are going to look a lot like the 2024 Phillies.

Offseason prediction: Last offseason, the one big move the Phillies made was re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract as a free agent. It could be a similar offseason, when the only significant moves are re-signing the two relievers. Hoffman is the better pitcher, although Estevez has the closer pedigree. If you could pick just one, I'd go with Hoffman and let another team overpay for Estevez. If the Phillies want to make a trade, the one candidate would be third baseman Alec Bohm. He's coming off a career-high 3.0 WAR season after totaling 0.9 WAR in 2022 and 0.4 in 2023. While his defense at third was much improved, his RBI total (97) overstates his offensive value. -- David Schoenfield

San Diego Padres

Key free agents: SS Ha-Seong Kim (mutual option), LF Jurickson Profar, RP Tanner Scott, C Kyle Higashioka, SP Martin Perez, C Elias Diaz, INF Donovan Solano

Biggest offseason priority: Padres general manager A.J. Preller could take an offseason-long vacation -- something he, of all people, certainly will not do -- and his team would still be quite talented. The Padres have most of their core offensive players coming back next year, as well as the vast majority of their rotation and all but one of their highest-leverage relievers. But that sustainability is largely a product of signing veteran players to long-term contracts that pay them big money deep into their 30s. That means the Padres are operating within a very finite window. Every year needs to be capitalized on.

Their foremost priority this offseason will be figuring out catcher, given how Higashioka supplanted Luis Campusano behind the plate and even Diaz was signed to a minor league deal to take his place as the backup. The Padres famously employ a lot of shortstops, which means they have plenty of options to replace Kim if he prices himself out in free agency. But who, exactly? Perhaps it's Jackson Merrill, who starred in center field as a rookie but is capable of locking down shortstop. Maybe Fernando Tatis Jr. goes back there, rather than continuing to play a dynamic right field. Or maybe the Padres pick the path of least resistance and go back to Xander Bogaerts, who has at times underwhelmed defensively.

That decision will probably impact what type of bat the Padres seek. With Profar and likely Kim hitting free agency, they'll need another. And with Joe Musgrove spending the entire year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, they might seek a mid-rotation starter to join Michael King, Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease.

What will the payroll look like? Late owner Peter Seidler pushed the Padres' payroll to previously unimaginable heights. It stood at more than $174 million on Opening Day in 2021, roughly a 60% increase from the previous franchise record. The next year it went even higher, to $211 million. Then even higher, to nearly $250 million, behind only the Mets and the Yankees for tops in the sport. In the wake of Seidler's death last November, the Padres scaled back, shaving their payroll by a third to about $165 million heading into 2024. The loss of the team's regional sports network contract, through Diamond Sports Group's bankruptcy, played a major role, as did missing out on the playoffs the prior year. Is this the new normal, though? Given they'll pay Bogaerts, Tatis, Manny Machado, Musgrove and Darvish a combined $90 million in 2027, the Padres will need to ramp up spending again in order to remain competitive.

Offseason prediction: The Padres set a new Petco Park attendance record this year. They didn't make up for the revenue of their old RSN, but their reach has significantly increased with blackout restrictions removed from their games (a product of territorial rights no longer being in play). And though the Padres will probably never spend at Steve Cohen levels, the guess here is that they'll have a modest bump in payroll -- enough to supplement the offense, perhaps add some additional pitching depth and continue to apply pressure on the free-spending Dodgers. Cease, King and Luis Arraez, all acquired within the past 12 months, will be heading into their final seasons before free agency. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Padres seriously explore extensions with at least one of them. -- Alden Gonzalez

Teams eliminated in wild-card series

Atlanta Braves

Key free agents: LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, OF Adam Duvall, LHP A.J. Minter, RHP Jesse Chavez, IF/OF Whit Merrifield, 3B Gio Urshela; club options on DH Marcell Ozuna, C Travis d'Arnaud, LHP Aaron Bummer, RHP Luke Jackson

Biggest offseason priority: Fried is 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA in his Atlanta career and ranks third among all pitchers in WAR since 2020. He'll be 31, but he's in his prime and clearly one of the top southpaws in the game, with a deep arsenal of pitches that should allow him to age well. Re-signing him is one of the biggest offseason priorities the Braves have faced in a long time. It's certainly no guarantee he returns, however. He's one of the few young Braves players who never signed a long-term extension. He's from L.A. and, well, there's a team there with very deep pockets that suffered a slew of pitching injuries in 2024.

Aside from that, the Braves will wait to see if Morton retires. They'll have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach as guarantees for the rotation, plus Spencer Strider returning at midseason or so. They still have 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder around, plus AJ Smith-Shawver, so I don't think they have to make a rotation addition, even if they don't re-sign Fried.

They're set on the position player side of things and will certainly pick up Ozuna's option after his monster season (although the in-season trade for Jorge Soler creates a logjam at DH).

Will they look to upgrade shortstop or left field? Aside from all the injuries, the weakest positions were shortstop, where Orlando Arcia hit .218, and left field, where Jarred Kelenic slumped badly in the second half. Soler has two years and $32 million left on his contract, so he's going to be difficult to trade and maybe the Braves shove him into left field. Given the Braves' payroll situation, they'll probably just live with Arcia's $2 million salary and hope his bat bounces back a bit.

Offseason prediction: The Braves have a lot of payroll on the books in upcoming seasons, and even though those are at generally team-friendly rates, it might make re-signing Fried prohibitive, as important as he is to the team. I predict he signs elsewhere -- whether it's with the Dodgers or another team. He'll be in high demand. The Braves would love for some team to take on Soler's contract, although they might have to eat some of the salary. Otherwise, the 2025 Braves are going to look a lot like the 2024 team -- just with more Ronald Acuna Jr. and hopefully more Strider. -- David Schoenfield

Baltimore Orioles

Key free agents: RHP Corbin Burnes, RF Anthony Santander, C James McCann, LHP John Means; club options on DH Eloy Jimenez, RHP Seranthony Dominguez, 1B Ryan O'Hearn, LHP Danny Coulombe, Cionel Perez

Biggest offseason priority: Deciding if they want to make a run at re-signing Burnes or figure out some other way to add a top-of-the-rotation type. They will have in-season acquisition Zach Eflin for the entire season and Grayson Rodriguez (who would have missed the entire postseason because of a strain in his right shoulder and back), but Kyle Bradish, their 2023 ace, had Tommy John surgery in June, so he'll be out for most or all of 2025.

Burnes or the other top free agent starters -- Max Fried, Blake Snell, Jack Flaherty -- might be out of the Orioles' price range, or at least contrary to Mike Elias' ideas of building from within and making trades rather than dishing out big free agent contracts. That philosophy could also mean they let Santander sign elsewhere, even coming off a 44-homer season. That earned Santander his first All-Star selection, but the Orioles do have potential replacements, and if they spend money, it's more likely to be on the pitching staff.

Where will all the young position players fit in? The Orioles will have to figure out where Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad will play in 2025 -- most likely in Baltimore, but possibly elsewhere if one is traded for pitching help -- and if Jackson Holliday is ready to take over second base after struggling as a rookie. Mayo had a cup of coffee and went 4-for-41 (.098) with 22 strikeouts. Kjerstad missed time with a concussion. Both have done all they can in Triple-A, so it makes sense to work them into the lineup, but at what positions? Is Mayo a third baseman or first baseman? Does Kjerstad take over a corner outfield position? What they do with those two and Holliday could affect how they deal with O'Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias (and where Jordan Westburg plays).

Offseason prediction: The Orioles have hard-hitting Samuel Basallo close to the majors as well, after he reached Triple-A. But there's room for all these guys: Holliday to second, Westburg to third, Mayo to first, Kjerstad in the outfield and Basallo as a catcher/DH/first baseman. I don't think they spend for either Burnes or Santander and will definitely turn down Jimenez's option. They'll trade Mountcastle or O'Hearn to save some money, free up a spot and keep all the kids, while signing a second-tier starting pitcher and maybe some bullpen help (remember, Felix Bautista should be back from Tommy John surgery). That's unlikely to please Orioles fans. -- David Schoenfield

Houston Astros

Key free agents: 3B Alex Bregman, RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Biggest offseason priority: Fill out the corners. This need begins with the likely pursuit of franchise cornerstone Bregman, who means so much to the Astros, on the field and off. He's not the kind of player you can replace easily with mere production, but you do need to replace the production if he leaves. The Astros also have a need across the diamond, as they've struggled for consistent first base impact since the Jose Abreu signing went south. You could also argue that, given Yordan Alvarez's cumbersome knees, that a full-time DH plan would make sense, and then you'd have to make sure you have enough in left field.

How high can the payroll get and how long can it remain this high? The Astros have been so good about finding pitching production that even with Verlander's apparent decline and possible departure, Houston doesn't have to break the bank to fill out the staff. Still, the Astros have been running a top-five payroll. Bregman will cost them if they are able to keep him in the fold, and they should. Kyle Tucker is one year from free agency and probably should have already been extended. Same holds true for Framber Valdez, as no matter how good your overall pitching program might be, a consistent and durable ace is a precious commodity.

The Astros are on the Gibbon trajectory (Edward Gibbon wrote "The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire"). They started modestly, built up into a mighty empire, but thanks to incursions from competitors, economic pressures and the natural forces of cosmic regression, the fortress is showing wear and tear. A collapse isn't looming yet, but it's out there, and you wonder how long Jim Crane might want to keep ramping up payroll to prevent the inevitable.

Offseason prediction: Bregman stays on a long-term deal. It's impossible to imagine Bregman with another team. (Though the list of "you can't see him with another team" players is as long as baseball history itself.) Still, what would they do at The Moonshiners if he left? Name his sandwich after somebody else? No, this has to work out, and Bregman has an off-the-field future with the club if he wants it. Make him a career Astro. You could see a deal surprisingly longer in duration than you might expect, but perhaps with more modest average annual values to lessen the tax hit. And there are always deferrals. -- Bradford Doolittle

Milwaukee Brewers

Key free agents: SS Willy Adames, LHP Wade Miley (mutual option)

Biggest offseason priority: With the Brewers bursting at the seams with young positional talent, Milwaukee can focus on adding some veteran stability to the rotation. The question is how much Milwaukee will spend in free agency.

Milwaukee has little long-term money on the books beyond the rest of Christian Yelich's contract and what's already looking like an extraordinarily team-friendly deal with Jackson Chourio. That doesn't mean the Brewers will be hunting for a splash because, let's face it, that's not what they do. They will probably make a run at keeping Adames, and a decision has to be made on Freddy Peralta, who, assuming Milwaukee picks up his club option for 2025, will be a free agent after next season. Do the Brewers extend Peralta or trade him, as they did Corbin Burnes?

Then there are the injuries. Robert Gasser had Tommy John surgery, as did the veteran Miley, who might not want to keep playing anyway. Brandon Woodruff might be ready to return from the shoulder injury that kept him out all of 2024, so that would certainly help. Still, the Brewers navigated to the playoffs using 17 different starters, including 13 who started at least three times. Some stability would be nice. An ace, if they want to swing big, would be really nice.

How does Christian Yelich fit in going forward? This question is not posed because Yelich has slipped as a player. It does assume he recovers fine from back surgery, which is never a sure thing. Before he went down, though, Yelich was easily the Brewers' best hitter, posting a 151 OPS+ and stealing 21 of 22 bases over 73 games.

No, the problem isn't Yelich but the depth of outfield talent the Brewers have at their disposal. This begins with Chourio but includes Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins. You figure Yelich will still be a regular out in the grass, but given his age (33 by Opening Day) and the back problem, you could see him having more DH time and ... just maybe ... taking some reps at first base.

Also, given the Brewers' depth of controllable outfield talent and the possible desire to extend some of their younger players, could a Yelich trade be on the table? Because of the surgery, that's not likely to happen this winter. Still, it's also likely Yelich's role will begin to evolve as he assumes the mantle of the Brewers' elder statesman.