There are two key principles that I live my life by. The first one is this: if you want to get a group of people excited, chuck free T-shirts into the stands. The second one is this: if you want to get a group of people riled up, rank MLS teams.
Unfortunately, I wasn't able to secure the necessary resources to toss you, dear reader, a free shirt through whatever screen you're using to read this fine story. My apologies. What I was able to secure, however, was the gumption to rank teams ahead of the playoffs for one of the most un-rankable leagues in the world.
MLS, by design, is built on parity. Even as the postseason begins with a pair of wildcard contests on Wednesday, there's relatively little separating the best of the best from the "we barely snuck into playoffs" crowd.
But relatively little separation doesn't mean no separation. I'm ranking this year's MLS playoff teams from 18 all the way down to 1 based on how likely they are to win MLS Cup in December. Let's get to it.
18. CF Montréal
Qualifying for the playoffs isn't an impressive accomplishment in MLS given the sheer number of teams that check that box every year. Still, because CF Montreal had exactly zero contributing Designated Players in 2024, first-year manager Laurent Courtois and his cast of role players deserve a little love for helping Montreal be one of those playoff teams in 2024.
Still, it's hard not to see Montreal as fodder for Inter Miami in the East, should they advance past Atlanta United in their Wildcard game on Tuesday. They allowed more goals than all but four teams in the regular season, have the worst goal difference of all playoff teams, and have the worst expected goal differential of all playoff teams, according to FBref's data. Five wins in their last seven games pushed Montreal above the line, but a gappy defense and a stop-start attack does not a contender make.
17. Atlanta United
Thanks to a crucial victory over Orlando City and stumbles from both D.C. United and the Philadelphia Union on Decision Day, the Five Stripes snuck into the playoffs at the final hour.
While Atlanta United aren't strangers to postseason success, this year's team is very much one in transition. They don't have a permanent manager and they have just one true Designated Player in Alexey Miranchuk, who's struggled desperately in his eight starts since dropping an "a" and moving from Atalanta to Atlanta in the summer window. He's in just the 21st percentile for non-penalty expected goals plus expected assisted goals per 90 minutes among MLS attacking midfielders and wingers, according to FBref.
With consistently poor decision-making from their new No. 10 and a lack of game-changers around him, Atlanta United's ceiling isn't high enough for them to lift MLS Cup.
16. Vancouver Whitecaps
First came despair: the summer transfer window closed and the Vancouver Whitecaps had failed to sign a third Designated Player to drive a trophy push. Then came hope: a DP arrived after all! Thanks to free agents being able to register even after the window shut, former Southampton midfielder Stuart Armstrong put pen-to-paper last month.
Then came more despair: Armstrong has barely played. The 32-year-old has made just one start and totaled 128 minutes for the Whitecaps.
The Caps are an above-average MLS team in basically every way. Their xG is above average, their xG allowed is above average, their shot-stopping is above average, and Ryan Gauld and Brian White form a well-above average pairing in the attack. But without Armstrong (or someone else) to refine average and make it truly special, it's hard to picture Vancouver making a deep run. Oh, and despite finishing above Portland, they'll have to travel to Providence Park for Wednesday's Wildcard game thanks to a scheduling conflict at BC Place. Just awesome.
15. Portland Timbers
I love so much of what the Portland Timbers have done this year.
By adding Jonathan Rodríguez in the winter transfer window, Portland created a three-pronged attack that packs a punch with Evander and Felipe Mora. They improved their defensive work so much over the final two-thirds of the year, too.The Timbers went from allowing the fifth-most xG per game in MLS in their first 12 games to allowing the seventh-lowest xG total per game in their last 22 matches.
Of the four wildcards team in the MLS Cup playoffs, the Timbers are the most likely to advance and pull off an upset in Round One.
Still, I just can't get over the giant hit Portland's trophy chances took when the team fell out of the guaranteed seven in the West and landed in the wildcard spots. Having to win 20% more soccer games than all of the other serious contenders? Sorry, Timbers. That spells trouble.
14. Colorado Rapids
Take a bow, Colorado. You had the second-largest points per game increase from 2023 to 2024 in the entire Western Conference and the third-largest increase in all of MLS, only behind a team down in Florida who happened to sign the greatest player of all time midway through last year and the spendy LA Galaxy.
The Rapids' turnaround under Chris Armas with their various winter roster changes has been impressive. Still, those things have only taken Colorado from "bad" to "solid" -- the jump all the way up to "great" hasn't happened yet. According to FBref, the Rapids finished 10th in xG differential this season.
There's a real worry surrounding this team's fitness. They've lost four straight games with Cole Bassett sidelined, Djordje Mihailovic was carried off the field with an ankle injury on Decision Day, and Zack Steffen is out (though that isn't the worst thing for Colorado, given he's allowed league-worst 9.1 goals more than expected, per FBref).
This team isn't deep enough to survive.
13. New York Red Bulls
There's a whole lot of history pointing to the fact that the Red Bulls aren't a serious threat to win MLS Cup this year. They're one of the only three founding MLS teams to have never won it. They also haven't won a playoff game since 2018. That they've made the playoffs for 15-straight seasons in MLS is more of an indictment of the league's everybody-gets-a-trophy postseason format -- 62% of teams qualified for the playoffs this year! -- than of RBNY's continued excellence.
The present tells us we should be concerned about the Red Bulls' attack letting them down. According to FBref, they finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in non-penalty xG per shot (0.10) and passes into the box per 90 (8.0) and outside the top third of the league in both goals and non-penalty xG.
It's up to the defense to carry this team.
12. Houston Dynamo
In so many ways, Ben Olsen's Houston Dynamo team plays like Wilfried Nancy's reigning-champion Columbus Crew team.
The Crew averaged 58.7% possession this year. The only team who averaged more possession in 2024? The Dynamo, who landed at 59.2%. Both teams tend to control the ball in a 3-2-5 shape. Both teams try to bait the opposing press by playing a bunch of short passes -- Columbus and Houston are both in the top five of American Soccer Analysis' expected passing completion percentage stat.
There's one crucial way Houston have failed to image Columbus: they don't have anyone to play the final ball in the attacking midfield line. The Dynamo are third in MLS in total touches this year, but they're 21st in non-penalty xG, according to FBref. Houston's ability to control games is special -- and keeps them in the trophy hunt. But even with a fully healthy Héctor Herrera, they're one piece away from being a true trophy threat.
11. Charlotte FC
Speaking of goalkeeping, if there's one reason to believe in Charlotte FC as a real MLS Cup threat, it's the play of Kristijan Kahlina between the posts. The 32-year-old Croatian played himself into a shiny new contract this season and has been the best shot-stopper in the league. Kahlina is saving nearly a third of a goal more than expected every 90 minutes. He's not the cherry on top of Charlotte FC's defensive sundae; he's the ice cream.
Kahlina's game-changer status separates Charlotte FC from many of the theoretical contenders on this list. But outside of their shot-stopping, it's a lot of just-okay stuff for Charlotte FC. They finished the regular season 15th in xG differential. That doesn't scream trophy to me.
10. Minnesota United
The Loons have been soaring over the last two months.
Ever since first-year chief soccer officer Khaled El-Ahmad added Kelvin Yeboah, Jefferson Díaz and Joaquín Pereyra in the summer window, Minnesota United have picked up results left and right. Between transfer deadline day -- August 14 -- and the end of the regular season, Minnesota ranked third in points per game (2.11) and first in expected points per game (1.94), according to American Soccer Analysis.
On pure form alone, it's hard to ignore Minnesota United right now. Still, their schedule has been fairly soft: beating San Jose, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Colorado doesn't automatically make you a contender. Losses to Seattle and Cincinnati could paint a more accurate picture. Time will tell.
9. New York City FC
Four months ago, you can bet New York City would've found themselves in a less favorable position in these rankings.
Then Alonso Martinez went supernova.
The 26-year-old Costa Rican has scored 10 goals in his last 13 MLS games, answering one of the questions that had defined NYCFC since Taty Castellanos moved to Europe: who would put the ball in the back of the net? Nick Cushing has that striker right now. Will Martinez's heater continue? And can Cushing's control games with such a young squad? According to FBref, New York City FC is the second-youngest team in MLS, with an average age of 25.3 weighted by minutes placed.
8. Orlando City
With 10 wins in their last 14 games, Orlando City enter the playoffs red-hot. Only two teams in MLS have put together better points-per-game tallies than Oscar Pareja's squad since the beginning of July, with their 2.21. Orlando's success is built on their defensive work, where they sit sixth in non-penalty xG allowed per 90, according to FBref.
Still, they might be a little too focused on defending. Pareja started left winger Iván Angulo in all 34 games this year, taking full advantage of the Colombian's willingness to track back and add an extra number to his team's backline. What Angulo gives in defense, though, he takes in attack. He's in just the 35th percentile among MLS wingers and attacking midfielders in non-penalty xG plus expected assisted goals per 90, according to FBref.
An unbalanced Orlando City team may struggle to lift MLS Cup.
7. Real Salt Lake
There was a time in 2024 where it looked like Real Salt Lake had a chance to push for MLS Cup and the Supporters' Shield. After an opening day loss to Inter Miami, RSL lost just one of their next 18 regular season games. Chicho Arango was the team's 1A in that stretch, scoring goals left and right from his No. 9 position. Andres Gomez was the 1B, carving up defenses from the right wing.
Then the summer transfer window hit, and RSL's trophy dreams took a dive as Gomez moved to Ligue 1 side Stade Rennais for an eight-figure fee. Even having been gone for months, the young Colombian is still the second-leading scorer for Pablo Mastroeni. He's the second-leading assister, too.
There's enough defensive structure and top-end talent for Salt Lake to make a run, but without Gomez, their hopes have dwindled.
6. FC Cincinnati
Lucho Acosta makes you a trophy threat.
Look, I don't make the rules. I just uphold them. Acosta is a ceiling-raiser, through and through. Last year's MVP has been a force again in 2024, ending the year tied for third in MLS in non-penalty goal contributions, with 27. Between Acosta's wizardry and Pat Noonan's compact defensive structure that's allowed the fewest touches in his team's box this year, Cincinnati have the pieces to end the season with hardware.
For as high as their ceiling is, though, their floor is just as low. With two four-game winless streaks in their last 12 games, a bandaged backline, and a dearth of goalscoring forwards, Cincy are just as likely to crash and burn as they are to still be playing on Dec. 7.
5. Seattle Sounders
Each of the last three MLS Cup winners have finished their respective regular seasons in the top five for both goals and non-penalty xG, according to FBref's data. The last team in a non-COVID-19-altered year to win MLS Cup without putting up elite attacking numbers? The Seattle Sounders in 2019.
Like that 2019 team, this year's version of the Sounders isn't an attacking juggernaut. But they are MLS's best defensive team by some distance. They allowed a league-best 35 goals and a league-best 34.0 non-penalty xG this year, again based on FBref's data. Seattle's team-wide commitment to Brian Schmetzer's 4-4-2 defensive shape, mixed with the quality individual defenders protecting Stefan Frei's goal, sets this team apart.
That they lack the superstar possessed by the final four teams in these rankings is a concern. But I'm not betting against the Sounders in the playoffs.
4. LAFC
If MLS handed out The Underlying Numbers' Darling of the Year Award, LAFC would've walked right up on stage and made a tasteful acceptance speech after their regular season campaign. They finished the year with the best xG differential in the league, according to FBref. Between Dénis Bouanga, Mateusz Bogusz, Olivier Giroud, and plenty of others, it's oh-so-easy to fall in love with LAFC's trophy chances. They're an elite team with elite talent and very few extreme flaws, which is a rarity in MLS.
If they're so great, why aren't they ranked a couple of spots higher? Well, because I have legitimate worries about their ability to beat the Columbus Crew. They failed to do that in MLS Cup in December of last year. They failed at home in July. They failed in the Leagues Cup final in August.
Those losses to the Crew -- and their 4-2 defeat against the Galaxy last month -- have exposed a lack of defensive focus and execution from coach Steve Cherundolo's team. Toss in a giant question mark around Jesús Murillo's injury at center back and you've got a reason to worry about the data's favorite team.
Then again, the attack could keep dominating and the defense could tighten up. Everything's on the table.
3. LA Galaxy
Let me be very clear about something up front: the Galaxy are very flawed. They're a straight-up bad defensive team, one whose two most-used center backs are 36 (Maya Yoshida) and 21 (Jalen Neal). Ideally, you'd like your key defenders to be somewhere between those two numbers. They allowed more non-penalty xG in 2024 than any other non-wildcard playoff team.
But for as poor as coach Greg Vanney's team is against the ball, they're mesmerizing with it. They're built to concede two goals and score three every time out. The Galaxy became the first team in MLS history to have four players score at least 10 goals in the same year: Dejan Joveljic, Joseph Paintsil, Gabriel Pec, and Riqui Puig all hit that mark. Zooming out, LA are first in MLS in non-penalty xG, according to FBref, and third in actual goals.
The Galaxy are a team of extremes. They haven't drawn a regular season game since May 18, the longest draw drought in the league. This team tends to win or lose -- and the second seed in the West has done a whole lot more winning than losing in 2024.
2. Columbus Crew
As far as complete MLS teams go, there aren't many more complete than the Columbus Crew.
This year, they scored more goals than anyone not named Miami, they finished third in non-penalty xG, fifth in shot-quality, eighth in non-penalty xG allowed, and eighth in goals saved above expected. Columbus decimate their opponents with the ball, breaking them open with an astonishing level of precision. They also use all that possession play to limit their opponents' time on the ball.
It's a beautiful, proven recipe made possible by Wilfried Nancy's tactical savvy and communication skills, Cucho Hernández's brilliance in the final third, and a strong supporting cast that's been assembled by the front office. The Crew lifted MLS Cup last year. They have every chance to do it again this year.
The only thing, however, that prevented them from topping this list as favorites to repeat is the wildly high ceiling of...
1. Inter Miami
Inter Miami are frauds.
Whoops, sorry, that was the data talking. Looking at American Soccer Analysis' entire database, no team in the last decade-plus has outperformed their xG differential by a wider margin than this year's Miami team. They've outperformed their xG differential by more than an entire goal per game in 2024.
We've never seen something like this before in MLS.
But isn't that the whole thing with Inter Miami? They've assembled a squad with a ceiling higher than any team in league history. They have the greatest player ever. They've snagged a bunch of his friends, who also happen to be some of the greatest players ever. They're breaking the models. Am I surprised at the extent of which Inter Miami are breaking them? Sure. But am I surprised that Inter Miami are breaking them? Nope.
Inter Miami set the single-season points record this year. They've defied the odds so many times in 2024. What's five more wins?