Week 8 is a bit of a gross week. There are 16 games, yet we don't have a total above 50, and six of the games have a spread of a touchdown or larger. Feels like a good week to build a 16-team money-line parlay and chase the screenshot. (That is not betting advice. Don't do that.)
I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each --- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Week 7 recap | Jets-Patriots | Cowboys-49ers | Titans-Lions | Quick hits and SGP
Week 7 recap
A small positive week, making three of the past four weeks winners. If we bet only London games, we'd never lose again.
Slowly but surely, we're up out of our early season hole.
Week 7: 6-5 (+0.88 units)
Overall: 34-41 (-5.04u)
Spread: 5-7 (-2.44u)
Total: 8-9 (-1.8u)
Props: 21-18 (+0.6u)
Same-game parlay: 0-7 (-1.4u)
New York Jets (-7, 40.5) at New England Patriots
It's Week 8, and we already have some divisional rematches! The Patriots and Jets played a very forgettable Thursday night game in Week 3. Aaron Rodgers was 27-of-35 for 281 yards and two scores in what was certainly his best performance this season. The Jets sliced and diced their way through a Patriots defense that, at the time, had been stout. But that game was the beginning of the end for the Pats defense.
As mentioned last week, the Patriots defense isn't what it used to be. Last year, this unit had Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore, Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jabrill Peppers. All are absent from this year's group. Besides cornerback Christian Gonzalez, the best defensive player on these Patriots is probably Keion White, who was sidelined during Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury. On the season, the Patriots defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks 0.14 EPA per dropback; only four defenses are more forgiving to opposing passers. Since Week 3, that number is .22.
We've seen the Patriots defense struggle for over a month now; the struggles of the Jets defense is far more recent. Injuries have hit the secondary hard. Starting safety Chuck Clark has found his way on injured reserve, with Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis both missing practice on Wednesday from the safety position. Relief may come, as starting cornerback D.J. Reed (who missed the last game) was a full participant in Wednesday practice and nickel Michael Carter (who missed the last three games) was limited, which is a good sign for his Sunday availability.
But even if the secondary gets some reinforcements, I'm suspicious of this Jets defense, which has looked listless in the two weeks since Robert Saleh was fired. Russell Wilson and the Steelers scored 37, while Josh Allen and the Bills scored 23, but there were lots of scoring hijinks that muddled those numbers. The Bills averaged 0.2 EPA per play on offense; the Steelers, 0.22. The Jets were surrendering big plays, and per usual, struggling to limit opposing rushing attacks.
When the Jets blanketed the Patriots in Week 3, Jacoby Brissett was the quarterback and pressure was the problem. The Jets blitzed Brissett on 40% of his dropbacks and pressured him on 45.7%, totaling 7 sacks and holding the Patriots to -0.48 EPA per dropback.
The good news for the Patriots is that Drake Maye is not Jacoby Brissett. Through two weeks, Maye is doing a much better job taking pressure out of the offense. He has been pressured on 33.3% of his dropbacks, as opposed to the 47.2% that Brissett was enduring. Some of this is schematic -- the Pats play Maye much more in the gun and call a lot more quick-game concepts for him -- but some of it is the play style of the quarterback. Maye has a lower time to throw than Brissett and resets in the pocket much more easily, and he has shown the ability to speed up his process and get to his check-down quickly, which is a great sign for a rookie quarterback. This touchdown against the Jaguars, on which the Jags should have had a free rusher and an easy pressure, is a great example.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 24, 2024
Because the Patriots will give the Jets far fewer under-center, play-action looks with Maye than Brissett, I imagine they'll have to tone down the blitz rate, and accordingly the pressure rate should settle as well. The Jets do anticipate long-absent edge rusher Haason Reddick will make his debut in this game, but I have big questions about his conditioning and would not expect him to play more than 20 snaps. I like the Patriots to have a much more functional day on offense, especially if Rhamondre Stevenson is able to find more success on the ground than he did in their first outing when he ran the ball six times for 23 yards before he was quasi-benched for fumbling.
With a fine, if unspectacular Jets offense enjoying a plus matchup against the struggling Patriots defense, I like the over here. It is heavily juiced at 40.5, giving us the key number of 41, which could be big in this contest in which we should expect longer scoring drives and not too many possessions.
The bet: OVER 40.5 total points (-120)
It is hard to take any offensive props for the Jets, as their touch distribution is in flux following the playcaller switch (Nathaniel Hackett to Todd Downing) and acquisition of Davante Adams. Oddly, the most minimized role in the past two weeks has been that of rookie running back Braelon Allen, who has surrendered his 1B role as the new staff feeds Breece Hall touches to get this offense cooking.
I'm not sold that I really know anything about who the Jets want to get targets and touches when and where, so I'm passing on their entire offense. I'll turn instead to Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. While the Patriots' wide receiver room has been a carousel of roles and frustrations, Henry has been an eddy-steady option for both Brissett and Maye, and he has displayed an instant chemistry with Maye. Henry has seen five and nine targets in two games with Maye at the helm, more than he saw in every week save for one with Brissett.
Henry was forced into a blocking/chipping role in the Week 3 game against New York, running only 21 routes and seeing only one downfield target. I expect to see him in the slot far more often in this game, and if the Patriots are trailing as expected, Maye will funnel him some underneath targets in two-minute drills.
The bet: Hunter Henry OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 45.5)
This is the moment for the Cowboys. They're 3-3. They're coming off of their bye week, though likely still licking their wounds after getting tossed by the Lions, 47-9, in their own barn. They are on "Sunday Night Football" facing Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, the team that has absolutely terrorized them since Mike McCarthy became the head coach. The Commanders and the Eagles are ahead of Dallas in the division, but the Eagles look far from perfect and the Commanders might be missing Jayden Daniels this week.
This is the game for the Cowboys that could cure all ills: beat the 49ers, in San Francisco, get above .500 and exorcize all the demons of the past. You're catching the 49ers at a low point, too. Running back Christian McCaffrey is not ready to come back, the Niners just lost star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. is still overcoming a case of pneumonia so bad he was hospitalized and third wide receiver Jauan Jennings still isn't practicing with a hip injury. Nor is tight end George Kittle with a foot injury! The 49ers may spend this game feeding touches to running back Jordan Mason, receivers Ricky Pearsall and Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley and tight end Eric Saubert.
This should absolutely be the Cowboys' game. As it is, I'm taking the 49ers with the points.
The bet: 49ers -4 (-110)
The Cowboys are 0-3 under McCarthy against the 49ers, in large part because Shanahan knew what buttons to press against the Dan Quinn defense. I always remember the story that longtime Seahawks/49ers cornerback Richard Sherman told about Shanahan's knowledge of Quinn from their time together in Atlanta. But Quinn is out, and Mike Zimmer is in as the new defensive coordinator in Dallas. The problem is, while the face is different, the problems are the same.
Teams that cannot stop the run do not beat the 49ers, and the Cowboys cannot stop the run. They are 31st in success rate and 32nd in EPA facing designed runs. They are one of only two teams (Carolina being the other) to stop runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on fewer than 10% of carries. They are particularly awful when the opposing quarterback gets under center (.19 EPA per carry, the worst number in the league) or when there's motion on the run (.11 EPA per carry, the second-worst number in the league). Guess what the 49ers do to run the football? They get under center, and they send players in motion.
Consider the teams that have clowned the Cowboys this season. The Saints go under center and run the football -- and did so with ease against Dallas. So too did the Lions before the bye week. And both of those teams hit big play-action passes off of the success of their running game. Against the play-action pass, the Cowboys are surrendering .27 EPA per dropback (fifth-worst in football) and a success rate of 55.7% (eighth-worst in football). And 25.5% of play-action dropbacks against the Cowboys have gone for explosive gains. Only the Bears are surrendering more.
Now, it is true that the 49ers are running less play-action this year. But consider the hand you've been dealt, if you're Kyle Shanahan. You became this shotgun, spread-'n-shred team, in large part because of the unmatchable arsenal of pass-catchers at your disposal. There's no need to go under center play-action when you can just line up McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle and win. To get through this week, the path forward is clear: get back to a heavy dose of run, run, run, play-action shot. Protect your young receivers by giving them fewer reps and easier responsibilities. Control the game.
If this is the expected game script, there are two props to look for: Mason rushing overs and Brock Purdy's longest completion. I think over 35.5 for Purdy's longest completion is a great bet, but because of the inconsistency and youth of the receivers, I'm going to go the safer route and take Mason to have a successful, high-volume game on the ground.
The bet: Jordan Mason OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-115)
The biggest thing the Cowboys can do to help their defense is to improve on offense, especially early in games. That way, they can stop getting hamstrung by these big first-half deficits and forced pass scripts. Dallas is suffering from a stuffy offense. No quarterback is throwing into more tight windows this season than Dak Prescott, as the Mike McCarthy passing offense (stop me if you've heard this one before) has grown stale and predictable. Save for CeeDee Lamb, there is no quality separator on the team, which makes the tumultuous Lamb-Prescott relationship all the more concerning.
The 49ers defense is far from perfect, but they're well equipped to give the Cowboys fits. They are far better against the pass than the run, but the Cowboys can't run the ball. Charvarius Ward is a strong enough CB1 to stymie Lamb on the outside, and when Lamb bumps into the slot, Deommodore Lenoir will be waiting for him. The Cowboys will look to attack Renardo Green, the rookie corner who has ousted Isaac Yiadom as the other starter on the outside, but Green has been playing well in recent weeks, and the WR2 spot in Dallas is notoriously weak.
It never feels great to fade a team that's in a desperation spot as the Cowboys are. I wouldn't be surprised if they come out with a lot of heat and get an early score or two, so I will be looking for live lines for the 49ers. But this a matchup that skews the 49ers' direction every way I look at it, and I'll take this line now before it jumps following any positive injury news for San Francisco.
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11, 44.5)
All right, everyone plug your nose with me and jump in.
This is a prime lookahead spot for the Lions. They just played a huge game in Minnesota, got an emotional win and now must travel to Green Bay next week for another key divisional road game.
Into Detroit comes a sleepy Titans team with only one win on the season. We don't even know if Mason Rudolph or Will Levis will be the starting quarterback yet. The Titans began their trade deadline sale a little early this week, shipping linebacker Ernest Jones IV and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins out for Day 3 picks. This is not a particularly competitive team.
But that's only half true. The Titans defense has been a competitive unit all season. Tennessee is third in the league in defensive success rate, behind only the Bears and Broncos, and they're 10th in EPA per play. They've drawn a relatively light schedule -- Caleb Williams in his first start, Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco -- and just played their worst game of the season against the Bills, but I still believe this is an above-average unit. Even this Bills game was 10-7 at the half before things collapsed on some bad field position and explosive plays. By EPA per dropback, it was still a below average day for Allen.
Here's the real kicker: new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson has this team locked in against the play-action pass. The Titans defense has seen 43 play-action passes this season (that's not a lot), but they've been absolute nails against them with an EPA per dropback of -0.38, success rate allowed of 27.9%. It's a small sample, but those are disgustingly good numbers.
Even with trade acquisition L'Jarius Sneed not necessarily delivering the same caliber of play he did in Kansas City, there's a lot of talent in the Tennessee secondary. Turn on the film, and you see the middle of the field blanketed by strong communication and spacing between nickel corner Roger McCreary, linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. and safeties Quandre Diggs and Amani Hooker. The youth and inexperience on the outside between rookie Jarvis Brownlee and Darrell Baker is concerning, but this Lions team doesn't really beat you with their outside receivers, and Jameson Williams is out because of a two-game suspension.
If you can cover the middle of the field and survive against play-action, you can slow this Lions passing game. Jared Goff is hitting a play-action fake on 31.9% of his dropbacks, which is just behind Flacco and Anthony Richardson for the heaviest reliance. As he has been for much of his career, Goff's a terror on play-action but a far more average quarterback without it. Don't get it twisted; the Lions' passing game is still solid, and they can run the football well. But the play-action pass is an integral cornerstone to this offense.
If the Titans can match strength for strength and limit the Lions' play-action pass game, I'd be stunned if we see the same Goff we saw against the Cowboys or the Seahawks or the Vikings. Those games live fresh in our memory and make the Lions feel unfadeable, but this hasn't been a perfect season for Goff. His first three opponents, the Buccaneers, Cardinals and Rams, all had better days getting stops on Goff. If you can survive the play-action pass, this offense doesn't steamroll.
I like the matchup for the Titans defense. I like the way the Titans slow the game down on offense (31.9 seconds of game time per play, second-slowest in the league). And I like the Titans' red zone defense as well (second in goal-to-go, 10th in red zone efficiency). Tennessee has given up over 27.5 points only once this season, and it was last week's game that spiraled late. I'm expecting a sleepier, closer game on Sunday.
The bet: Lions UNDER 27.5 team total points (-110)
If we're expecting a down day for the Lions offense overall, then I'm looking to fade Sam LaPorta in the prop market. It has been an odd season for LaPorta, who went from a high volume feature piece as a rookie to an occasional trick play receiver this season. He was dealing with ankle injuries early in the season, and it's worth wondering if he ever got fully healthy. Perhaps when he's a few more weeks removed from the injury, he'll return to his rookie ways -- and perhaps, as the emergence of Williams has carved into his volume, Williams' suspension will also create that additional space.
Even with Williams out, LaPorta won't suddenly start lining up out wide and sprinting downfield the way Williams did. This Titans defense is allowing only 0.97 yards per route run to tight ends this season, one of only four teams below 1.00 yards per route. So long as we avoid the huge trick play, we should be in a good spot here. I will take under LaPorta's receiving yards for the column, as the juice is more favorable, but I think under 3.5 receptions at -135 is also a great look.
The bet: Sam LaPorta UNDER 34.5 receiving yards (-105)
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III OVER 90.5 rushing + receiving yards (-122)
Walker showed us last week, rushing for 69 yards on a line of 69.5, but I'm pleased to go back to the well against a Buffalo defense that allows three down backs to eat them alive. The Bills funnel targets and yardage to backs out of the backfield like no other defense, as they permit all underneath completions by packing the intermediate and deep zones. The Bills also give up explosive runs at the eighth-highest rate and are allowing 1.8 yards before contact per rush, the fifth-worst number in the league. If DK Metcalf can't go with his MCL sprain, the Seahawks' priority for getting touches in this game will start with Walker.
Chicago Bears -3 at Washington Commanders (-105)
I was so, so stoked for this game when Jayden Daniels was still healthy. We still don't officially know who will start, but Daniels didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, and I can't imagine they'll rush him into the action with a rib injury that could get exacerbated with more hits.
The market is definitely leaning toward backup Marcus Mariota getting the call. If he is indeed the starter, this line will get over -3 quickly. The Bears offense got better week over week before their bye, and now they get a Commanders defense that looked good against the Panthers but still has terrible season-long metrics. Mariota might be good at executing the base Kliff Kingsbury offense, but he can't do nearly as much downfield or out of structure as Daniels did. And that was carrying a lot of weight in this offense.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 224.5 passing yards (-125)
Big, big number here for a quarterback who has not completed more than 20 passes in any of the last three weeks. Without Dallas Goedert on the field, the Eagles' passing game has become very reliant on downfield completions. And while receiver A.J. Brown is shockingly good on those throws, they still remain low-percentage targets. I expect a run-heavy script from the Eagles, an emphasis on deep pass defense from the Cincinnati Bengals (who have improved mightily in the explosive passing game over the last few weeks) and a few scrambles from Hurts as well. Everything here pulls me to a passing under.
Denver Broncos WR Troy Franklin OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Panthers' defense is weak just about everywhere these days, with perhaps the only saving grace coming when Jaycee Horn wins his reps against the opposing WR1. With CB2 Dane Jackson not practicing on Wednesday because of a hamstring injury, I expect the non-Courtland Sutton targets in Denver to open up easily. And recently, the player that the Broncos have been focusing on in the passing game has been Franklin. The fourth-round rookie is getting designed targets behind the line of scrimmage and chances downfield, which makes this number gettable both by volume and by explosives.
SGP: Dolphins money line, Jaylen Waddle 50+ receiving yards, De'Von Achane 20+ receiving yards, James Conner under 14.5 receiving yards (+750)
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, elated that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is returning to the starting lineup, told the nation this week to start him in fantasy. But Hill won't be the only beneficiary from Tagovailoa's return. With Hill still drawing plenty of safety attention, expect Waddle -- who had 109 yards in Tagovailoa's only full start this season and 41 before he got injured late against the Bills -- to have a strong day. Achane has also been forced to take more rushing responsibility, but with Tagovailoa at the helm, he has always been a productive receiver. Conner had huge usage as a receiver last week but is generally still the early-down back on a team that doesn't throw much to the backs at all.