With the season a little more than halfway over, the first firings of the year came on Sunday. East Carolina and Southern Miss moved on from their coaches, Mike Houston and Will Hall, respectively, after tough starts.
That puts the open job count in the 2024 coaching carousel at four, as both Fresno State and Utah State have operated with interim coaches this year. Last season, an NCAA-record 32 FBS jobs opened, per NCAA statistics, eight above the average of 24 over the past 15 years.
Much like many things in college sports these days, the coaching carousel remains shrouded in ambiguity. Revenue share is likely coming, which has athletic departments scrambling.
Before we break down the jobs that can and will open, it's worth noting the key factors looming here:
1. There are schools facing difficult budgetary decisions with revenue share expected to come next season. Whether those are SEC schools expected to be all in on the $23 million in revenue share or a Conference USA school attempting to grind out $1 million for its football roster, the financial choices are thorny no matter the size of the school.
2. There has never been a trickier time to fire a coach from a roster standpoint, which is why it took until Oct. 19 for the first coaches to get fired this year. (In 2022, there were five power conference jobs open by Oct. 2. There are none today.). The prospect of players redshirting and fleeing and athletic directors not being able to field a functional team has led to patience. But that's balanced by athletic directors not wanting to wait too long, as struggling coaching staffs make it hard to raise money for NIL/revenue share.
One more thought on this dynamic is that the established coaches, in many ways, have rarely had more leverage if they are successful and being courted by another high-powered school. Consider how quickly large swaths of talent can flee from a powerhouse if the coach leaves the school -- think Nick Saban's retirement last year. A school showing interest in a coach might lead to schools giving big raises out of fear for how far back a departure could set their program.
3. This is the first coaching carousel with the expanded College Football Playoff as a factor. That means a school with a marquee open job -- think Florida, the projected market setter in this carousel -- could end up handcuffed if it wanted to target a CFP coach. Could Ole Miss' losses to LSU and Kentucky, which could keep Ole Miss out of the playoff, make Lane Kiffin easier to hire for Florida? Would a Penn State CFP spot make James Franklin harder to hire? Can schools hire a powerhouse coordinator in late November and not have them full time until the season ends on Jan. 20? These are new timeline paradigms that matter more with signing day coming on Dec. 4 and the transfer portal opening on Dec. 9.
That could make retread hires more appealing for athletic directors, as there's a giant advantage for shaping a 2025 roster by having a coach take over in mid-November. The names on that list include former head coaches who are either out of work or could easily leave current roles: Bryan Harsin, Paul Chryst, Dan Mullen, Justin Fuente, Scott Frost, Pat Fitzgerald, Bill Clark, Skip Holtz, Nick Rolovich, Jimbo Fisher, David Shaw, Dana Holgorsen and Gary Patterson.
Before the year, we broke down the jobs that could come open by the end of the year. Next week, we'll update those situations and look at Group of 5 coaches who are also under pressure. But for now, what are some new ones to monitor after the first two months of the season?
These places are struggling. Will the jobs open?
Mack Brown came back to North Carolina at the request of athletic director Bubba Cunningham. It has generally gone well, as the Tar Heels reached five straight bowl games after Brown took over a 2-9 program the prior year under Larry Fedora.
Quarterback Max Johnson's injury in the opener began this season's tailspin, and UNC has lost four games in a row. That included giving up 70 points in a blowout loss to James Madison, a loss to rival Duke and then two straight home losses.
The expectation in the industry is that Brown, who at 73 is the oldest coach in college football, figures out a way to exit gracefully. The slump, combined with Brown's age, portends a change coming in Chapel Hill. If and how that exit comes remains to be seen, but there have been enough signs of atrophy in the program that one more year for Brown is unlikely.
There's no one on staff for a direct handoff, so the situation would likely need to resolve itself in the next month or so for a smooth search and transition. There's a bye week after the Florida State game on Nov. 2, where clarity could come.
Brown means a lot to Carolina, as he has coached there for two stints over 16 years, the first of which began in 1988. Both sides will be aware of the mutual benefit of a smooth exit.
Lincoln Riley has been a mediocre college football coach the past two years. He's 6-8 in conference play over that time, which spans two leagues, and that includes losses to unranked UCLA, Minnesota and Maryland.
In the wake of the losses this year as USC has fallen to 3-4, Riley has come off as thin-skinned with the media, bungled timeout management in a loss to Penn State and lost four one-score games this year. Are they close or are they slipping? Depends on your perspective.
Even USC legend and television analyst Matt Leinart is piling on, as he said on social media after the Maryland game: "I'm frustrated, disappointed, embarrassed, you name it." He added the program was "taking steps backwards."
Will there be any action? It doesn't seem like there are many realistic options.
Riley has an athletic director who didn't hire him in Jennifer Cohen and a contract that, in theory, traps everyone. Sources told ESPN that it would cost USC in the neighborhood of $90 million to fire Riley, which would be the biggest buyout in college football history. (Texas A&M set the mark at more than $76 million by firing Jimbo Fisher last year.)
That's highly unlikely to happen, unless something was negotiated down.
There's no significant financial resistance for Riley to leave for another job on his own accord if he wanted a change of scenery, per sources. Riley is 77-22 as a head coach, which is a Hall of Fame winning percentage and trajectory.
While a collegiate change of scenery would make sense for Riley, could a place like Florida covet him considering the regression that's happened at USC? How do you hire a coach to compete for national titles who hasn't been able to do that the past two years at a top brand?
The sides appear stuck with each other for a while, as it's hard to see Riley walking away from the guaranteed war chest delivered by USC's prior administration. It's difficult to imagine an NFL head-coaching market for Riley, something that wasn't the case during his run at Oklahoma and after his first year at USC.
Could there be something closer to the footprint of his native Texas that gets him more comfortable? It'd be foolish to dismiss Riley, 41, for two bad seasons. Perhaps a reboot would be mutually beneficial.
His salary of more than $10 million could limit the lateral moves, as there's not likely anyone set to give him a 10-year deal at more than $10 million per season.
The likely result here is another attempt at a reboot, as USC's defensive woes have lessened this year and been replaced by an inability to execute in critical situations.
As leagues continue to grow in size, someone has to finish last. And Purdue is 0-4 in the Big Ten and trending toward being the league's first-ever 18th-place finisher.
Ryan Walters is only in his second season there, and he's expected to get more time. The administration there realizes it has been behind the Big Ten median in NIL and is expected to be supportive of helping Walters through the struggles of his early tenure.
Purdue is 1-6 this year and Walters is 5-14 over two years. He fired his offensive coordinator Graham Harrell on Sept. 29, and the replacement at that spot will be hugely important moving forward. Can Purdue lure a strong candidate -- and guarantee enough money -- to convince someone to help turn the battleship?
Purdue is No. 116 in scoring offense and the Boilermakers and have three top 15 teams left on the schedule -- No. 4 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State and No. 13 Indiana.
There's administrative empathy for what Walters faces. In fairness, the roster's top two players - wide receiver Deion Burks (Oklahoma) and defensive end Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) -- both took big-money deals elsewhere in the offseason. They could both end up as top-50 NFL draft picks.
The cost to fire Walters is significant at nearly $9.3 million after the season, which is another reason he's expected to get more time.
This is a case where fan unrest may not meet institutional sentiment. West Virginia is in the lower tier of the Power 4 conference schools financially, and like most schools in its financial weight class, it is figuring out a way to budget for revenue share next year.
Spending close to $10 million to fire Neal Brown would be difficult at a place such as West Virginia, especially in the wake of Brown authoring a nine-win season in 2023.
Considering the cost to bring in a new coach at a similar salary, pay a new staff and fund revenue share next year, that would be a huge stress on the budget. And all of WVU's losses have been to excellent teams this year -- Penn State (6-0), Pitt (7-0), Iowa State (7-0) and Kansas State (6-1).
Athletic director Wren Baker extended Brown's contract last year without significant change on the buyout. But it's still a lot of money.
Brown can calm the fan base and lower the chatter by finishing strong. He's 34-33 overall in six seasons and 3-4 this year. Only two of the five years -- 2020 and 2023 -- have been winning seasons. A third winning season would go a long way, and the schedule hints that's possible.