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          NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 8

          Christian Kirk of the Jacksonville Jaguars catches a pass. Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire
          • Seth Walder, ESPN AnalyticsOct 25, 2024, 04:50 PM ET

          We're betting to win.

          And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

          1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

          2. A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

          Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

          Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

          Defensive player props

          Jared Verse (LAR) under 5.5 tackles + assists (-120)

          This is a big number for an edge rusher, but you can see why Verse commands it, as he has a 10% tackle rate, which ranks second among players who play as a 7-9 technique at least 70% of the time and have played at least 70% of the snaps in games played. However, Verse is a rookie, and I don't think we've seen enough to think that's the kind of tackle production to expect going forward.

          That's because the base rates he's fighting against are just so strong. Among the 163 qualifying games by the same criteria above, only 19 times this season has one of those players gone over 5.5 combined tackles. I like our odds to fade him being No. 20.

          Kobie Turner (LAR) under 0.5 sacks (-180)

          Even though Turner recorded nine sacks as a rookie and is playing significantly more snaps this year, my sacks model is selling at this price. Turner has only three sacks on the year and also has moved back to playing more nose tackle after starting the season as more of a 3-technique. The farther inside he is, the harder it will be to record a sack. The model prices this under at -232.

          See also:

          Running back receptions and receiving yards

          Kyren Williams (LAR) under 14.5 receiving yards (-115)

          Here's a pattern that interests me from a betting perspective: defenses that play man coverage and/or blitz a lot suppress opponent running backs' receiving games.

          This appears to not be fully baked into the betting market, either, with receiving yard unders delivering value in the past against blitz-heavy defenses, and reception unders delivering value in the past against man-coverage defenses. The former applies here, as the Vikings blitz 43% of the time under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, more than any other team.

          Alternate receiving yards

          Christian Kirk (JAX) 40-plus receiving yards (-135)

          My alternate receiving yards model is much higher on Kirk's ability to hit this number, putting the fair odds at -206. Though Kirk has had a bit of a disappointing year, the model is encouraged by his 12.7 air yards per target, 24th among wide receivers with at least 15 routes per game, and it likes the higher game total (49.5). Plus, Trevor Lawrence has been playing better and has snuck up to sixth in QBR.

          While Kirk has only hit this line in three of seven games this year, if we expand the sample size to include 2023 he's hit it in 13 of 19 games.

          See also:

          Anytime touchdown

          Justin Jefferson (MIN) to score a touchdown (-115)

          One of the reasons I usually only have one touchdown bet per week here is that they are one-way bets that are, in my model's view, mostly bad. As of this writing there are only five wide receivers touchdown bets this week that my touchdown model prices higher than the odds. On two of those the difference is negligible.

          One (Terry McLaurin, +145) is a borderline bet that I'm not going to go for. Another is Tutu Atwell, whose role is significantly affected by the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in a way the model isn't totally cognizant of.

          The last is Jefferson, the player the model feels strongest about. I give that context because when I tell you the price the model spits out for Jefferson, you will think it is ridiculous. It's -202. Perhaps it is ridiculous. Even if it is, it might be directionally correct, however, and I'm trusting it. What's not to like? His receiving yards prop Thursday is an incredibly high 89.5. He leads all receivers in receiving yards share (38%) and is averaging 2.2 completed air yards per route run (fourth-best) and he does all that without running a lot of deep fade and go routes, which the model sees as a positive in terms of future touchdown production.

          Interceptions thrown

          Josh Allen (BUF) under 0.5 interceptions (-120)

          I guess we'll start with the obvious: we're getting -115 on an interception under for a great quarterback who has yet to throw an interception this year. The model isn't going to overrate that because it knows, of course, that Allen has thrown interceptions before this year and also that interceptions are awfully random - but it's not nothing. Add in the fact that the Bills are 3-point favorites (which helps the under) and that Buffalo is a run-leaning team and the odds are in our favor here. My model prices this at -134.

          Past results

          Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.