2024 College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 9

While there were no eye-popping upsets in Week 9, we saw a pair of Indiana schools outside the top 10 make a case for their inclusion in the College Football Playoff.

Indiana remained unbeaten with a convincing win over Washington, while Notre Dame emphatically handed Navy its first loss.

Elsewhere, surprising Texas A&M emerged as the last SEC team without a loss in conference play, while Penn State and Ohio State each had a bit of a scare before securing wins over Wisconsin and Nebraska to set up a Week 10 showdown between the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes.

What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff and the overall bowl picture?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set on Selection Day (Dec. 8).

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Ohio State

Bonagura: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Texas

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas
Schlabach: No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Clemson

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: Let's talk about Indiana. The Hoosiers are 8-0, have never trailed and have won comfortably every week. They don't have a marquee win, but neither does Penn State, which has fallen short of Indiana in just about every measurable way. If, say, Michigan or USC had Indiana's exact résumé, they would be viewed as a possible No. 1 team. Past success is often a helpful indicator in preseason polls, but when a team is eight games into a season, any historical stigma shouldn't matter. Indiana might eventually fall off, but I don't see the logic right now in them being lower than No. 5.

Schlabach: Thanks for getting on the Indiana bus, Kyle. It's about time. The Hoosiers have been unbelievably good under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, even after losing starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke this past week. Backup Tayven Jackson played well enough in a 31-17 win over Washington. The Hoosiers get Michigan State (road) and Michigan (home) before their ultimate test at Ohio State on Nov. 23. This was the most difficult week to hand out the final at-large berths. I went with Clemson, Indiana, Texas A&M and Notre Dame. It could have easily been Tennessee, Iowa State or Pitt (are we talking about the Panthers enough?). Under my scenario, it would be a TV ratings bonanza with Notre Dame going to Ohio State and Texas hosting rival Texas A&M.

CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 BYU
Schlabach: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 4 BYU

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 1 Oregon

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: After years of blowouts in the four-team playoff, what stands out about these hypothetical matchups is that they all look like they would -- or at least could -- be competitive games. It's hard to ask for more than that in the quarterfinal round of any sort of playoff. This is where the ACC and Big 12 have their chances to make a statement.

Schlabach: I had Penn State, Ohio State, Texas A&M and Clemson advancing out of the first-round games. The CFP selection committee would probably be content with the balance, with three teams from the Big Ten, two each from the ACC and SEC and one from the Big 12 playing in the quarterfinals. The Peach Bowl matchup between Miami and Ohio State and the Sugar Bowl game between Georgia and Texas A&M (two salty defenses) might be the most competitive. Then again, I'm probably still not giving undefeated BYU enough credit, like most everyone else in the country.

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CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Georgia

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: It still appears Dan Lanning is on a collision course with his former boss, Kirby Smart, in the national title game. The Ducks made quick work of No. 20 Illinois, have seemingly continued to improve as the season has gone along and have a manageable schedule the rest of the way. It's possible whoever they play in the Big Ten title game will also be their opponent in the semifinal. Georgia, meanwhile, was off this week after its convincing win against Texas and is still the default No. 2.

Schlabach: I'm on board with Kyle with Georgia playing Oregon in the national championship game. The Ducks have looked awfully good the past few weeks. Lanning has them trending in the right direction after some early-season struggles. Georgia looked better in its 30-15 victory at Texas two weeks ago, especially on defense. The Bulldogs play a surging Florida team in Jacksonville on Saturday. Miami blasted Florida State 36-14 after a string of narrow wins over Virginia Tech, California and Louisville. Cam Ward is the type of quarterback who has given Georgia's defense trouble in the past, but I'm not sure Miami would be good enough on defense to slow down the Bulldogs. I went with Penn State over BYU, but I don't have as much confidence in the Nittany Lions against Ohio State this week, especially if quarterback Drew Allar isn't healthy.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. NC State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. North Texas