We're through Week 7 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and although the postseason is months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.
Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.
Last update: Oct. 22 at 10 a.m. ET
Jump to a conference:
AFC | NFC
Projecting the AFC playoff field
Four teams in the NFL have a 90% or better chance to make the playoffs, and three of them play in the AFC. The Chiefs are over 99%, the Bills are at 98% and the Ravens are at 96% after beating the Buccaneers on Monday night. Division races in the AFC might not be super exciting down the stretch, too. The Chiefs are at 96% to win the AFC West, while the Bills are 94% to claim the AFC East.
The Jets dropped to 2-5 and are now 29% to make the playoffs despite high hopes before the season. The Dolphins, Browns and Jaguars all entered the year with 40% odds or better to make the postseason, and they are all below 10% today.
The Patriots sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances (less than 1%), but three other teams (Raiders, Browns and Titans) are also below 5%.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
Three NFC North teams lead the conference here. The Lions are 93% and the Vikings are 78%, after the former beat the latter Sunday. The Packers are third at 77%. Could we see all four NFC North teams in the playoffs? The Bears (40%) have the lowest chances of the four teams.
Remember when the Saints had the best odds to make the playoffs after Week 2? They were 81%. Now? Just 7%!
Also, check out the close race in the NFC West. The 49ers lead with 44% odds to make the playoffs after their loss to Kansas City, while the Seahawks and Cardinals are tied at 30%. (The Rams have a 12% chance at the playoffs.)
The Panthers and Giants both have less than a 1% chance to make the postseason.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)